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Next Fed rate hike·closes in 22mo

Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2028?

YES means Before July 2028

24h volume
21
575 lifetime
Open interest
365
+334 over 90d
Spread
1¢
68 × 1,000 at the touch
24h range
92¢ – 96¢
8 recent trades
Chance of YES
94%+2

A YES contract costs 96¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
6%

costs 5¢

YES bid / ask
95¢ / 96¢
NO bid / ask
4¢ / 5¢
24h low 92¢24h high 96¢
Recent buying7% YES · 93% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
85¢90¢95¢100¢volSep 17, 4:00 AMSep 20, 4:00 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask25299¢
  • ask20098¢
  • ask1,00096¢
spread1¢mid 96¢
  • bid6895¢
  • bid2,50094¢
  • bid1193¢
  • bid30092¢
  • bid2,50091¢
  • bid50087¢
  • bid2,10660¢
  • bid68859¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the Federal Reserve announces an increase in the target range or target level for the federal funds rate after market Issuance and on or before Jun 30, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Sep 16 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Jul 1, 2028 · 3:59 AM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXFEDHIKE-2-28JUN30
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 8 trades, 7% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
19h ago94¢11bought yes
22h ago94¢11bought yes
22h ago93¢0.01bought yes
1d ago92¢200bought no
4d ago92¢200bought no
4d ago92¢134bought no
4d ago95¢10bought yes
4d ago96¢10bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.