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Humanity's Last Exam·closes in 3mo

Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?

YES means At least 75%

24h volume
0
1,324 lifetime
Open interest
850
+67 over 7d
Spread
3¢
20 × 500 at the touch
24h range
–
18 recent trades
Chance of YES
14%

A YES contract costs 14¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
86%

costs 89¢

YES bid / ask
11¢ / 14¢
NO bid / ask
86¢ / 89¢
Recent buying89% YES · 11% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢50¢75¢100¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6790¢
  • ask6586¢
  • ask1,00559¢
  • ask24358¢
  • ask17057¢
  • ask452¢
  • ask15021¢
  • ask50014¢
spread3¢mid 13¢
  • bid2011¢
  • bid510¢
  • bid2008¢
  • bid5006¢
  • bid1504¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If any language model achieves an accuracy of at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
May 20 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
floor
75
ticker
KXLASTEXAM-26DEC31-T75
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 18 trades, 89% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago14¢67bought yes
3d ago14¢3bought yes
12d ago18¢40bought yes
12d ago17¢4.69bought yes
12d ago17¢3.31bought yes
20d ago7¢5bought no
20d ago8¢5bought no
21d ago19¢50bought yes
21d ago19¢0.96bought yes
21d ago19¢497bought yes
22d ago19¢4.94bought yes
23d ago17¢5bought yes
23d ago19¢95bought yes
27d ago17¢35bought yes
1mo ago14¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.