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Next Defense Sec·closes in 28mo

Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense?

YES means Dan Driscoll

24h volume
0
3,715 lifetime
Open interest
2,508
+209 over 90d
Spread
2¢
250 × 105 at the touch
24h range
–
27 recent trades
Chance of YES
6%

A YES contract costs 7¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
94%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 7¢
NO bid / ask
93¢ / 95¢
Recent buying33% YES · 67% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢15¢volJun 23Sep 20

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask30545¢
  • ask42944¢
  • ask4843¢
  • ask3742¢
  • ask7236¢
  • ask1725¢
  • ask25012¢
  • ask1057¢
spread2¢mid 6¢
  • bid2505¢
  • bid501¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Dan Driscoll, then the market resolves to Yes.

Acting and Interim positions don't count.

Settlement sources
opened
Apr 24 · 4:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXNEXTDEF-29-DDRI
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 106¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 27 trades, 33% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3d ago6¢250bought no
8d ago6¢17bought no
9d ago7¢5bought no
9d ago6¢7.49bought no
9d ago7¢5bought no
11d ago12¢58bought yes
11d ago11¢13bought yes
15d ago7¢13bought no
17d ago10¢5bought yes
17d ago11¢8.21bought yes
20d ago5¢5bought no
20d ago4¢250bought no
22d ago10¢5bought yes
22d ago11¢12bought yes
28d ago2¢2.35bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.