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Oscar for Best Picture·closes in 16mo

Will The Debut win Best Picture at the Oscars?

YES means The Debut

24h volume
16.1k
271.8k lifetime
Open interest
241.4k
+174.9k over 30d
Spread
1¢
15.6k × 41.6k at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 5¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%−2

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
24h low 2¢24h high 5¢
Recent buying67% YES · 33% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask47311¢
  • ask1,54910¢
  • ask5,0009¢
  • ask118¢
  • ask3,0007¢
  • ask375¢
  • ask14.8k4¢
  • ask41.6k3¢
spread1¢mid 3¢
  • bid15.6k2¢
  • bid83.6k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If The Debut has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

The 99thth Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.

Settlement sources
opened
Jun 23 · 12:35 AM UTC
closes
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXOSCARPIC-27-DEB
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 134¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 67% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
11h ago2¢234bought no
12h ago3¢31bought yes
13h ago2¢180bought no
13h ago2¢516bought no
15h ago3¢4,117bought no
15h ago3¢10bought no
15h ago3¢1.16bought no
15h ago3¢13bought no
15h ago3¢1.91bought no
15h ago3¢1.55bought no
15h ago3¢1,900bought no
15h ago3¢883bought no
15h ago3¢100bought no
16h ago4¢1,471bought no
16h ago4¢2,000bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.