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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Abdul El-Sayed be the nominee for the Presidency for the Democratic party?

YES means Abdul El-Sayed

24h volume
1,610
3.35M lifetime
Open interest
3.19M
+19.6k over 7d
Spread
1¢
435.3k × 1.16M at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%+1

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying32% YES · 68% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask36.6k9¢
  • ask14.4k8¢
  • ask15.0k7¢
  • ask15.0k6¢
  • ask15.2k5¢
  • ask65.8k4¢
  • ask255.2k3¢
  • ask1.16M2¢
spread1¢mid 2¢
  • bid435.3k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Abdul El-Sayed wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 10 · 11:30 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-AELS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 32% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
8h ago2¢1,170bought yes
10h ago2¢94bought yes
12h ago2¢47bought yes
17h ago1¢200bought no
17h ago1¢100bought no
1d ago1¢2,806bought no
2d ago2¢47bought yes
2d ago1¢94bought no
2d ago2¢62bought yes
2d ago1¢313bought no
2d ago2¢328bought yes
2d ago1¢500bought no
2d ago1¢500bought no
3d ago2¢4.67bought yes
3d ago2¢12bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.