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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Barack Obama be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Barack Obama

24h volume
0
5.79M lifetime
Open interest
4.32M
Spread
0¢
1.61M × 329.8k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
0%

A YES contract costs 0¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
100%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 0¢
NO bid / ask
100¢ / 100¢
Recent buying100% YES · 0% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask263.8k1¢
  • ask2,0571¢
  • ask411¢
  • ask1001¢
  • ask501¢
  • ask15.9k1¢
  • ask54.2k0¢
  • ask329.8k0¢
spread0¢mid 0¢
  • bid1.61M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Barack Obama wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Mar 20, 2025 · 8:30 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-BOBA
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 100% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1d ago0¢10.0kbought yes
1d ago0¢1,148bought yes
2d ago0¢8,245bought yes
2d ago0¢8,999bought yes
2d ago0¢2,000bought yes
2d ago0¢1bought no
2d ago0¢92bought yes
2d ago0¢909bought yes
3d ago0¢93bought no
3d ago0¢1.86bought no
3d ago0¢611bought yes
3d ago0¢611bought yes
3d ago0¢816bought yes
3d ago0¢1bought no
4d ago0¢305bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.