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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Josh Shapiro

24h volume
4,947
5.47M lifetime
Open interest
3.50M
Spread
0¢
39.2k × 209.6k at the touch
24h range
5¢ – 5¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
5%+0

A YES contract costs 5¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
95%

costs 95¢

YES bid / ask
5¢ / 5¢
NO bid / ask
95¢ / 95¢
24h low 5¢24h high 5¢
Recent buying70% YES · 30% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask19.0k5¢
  • ask27.1k5¢
  • ask3685¢
  • ask2,0025¢
  • ask26.1k5¢
  • ask32.0k5¢
  • ask48.6k5¢
  • ask209.6k5¢
spread0¢mid 5¢
  • bid39.2k5¢
  • bid20.1k5¢
  • bid8,4934¢
  • bid9,3724¢
  • bid9,9254¢
  • bid3,2014¢
  • bid25.3k4¢
  • bid3,0004¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Josh Shapiro wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-JS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 70% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago5¢489bought yes
2h ago5¢90bought no
4h ago5¢0.19bought yes
6h ago5¢149bought yes
6h ago5¢164bought no
7h ago5¢134bought no
8h ago5¢67bought no
8h ago5¢5bought yes
8h ago5¢1,995bought yes
9h ago5¢80bought yes
10h ago5¢25bought yes
11h ago5¢678bought yes
11h ago5¢997bought yes
13h ago5¢74bought yes
1d ago5¢161bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.