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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means James Talarico

24h volume
10.4k
6.90M lifetime
Open interest
4.31M
+10.0k over 24h
Spread
0¢
5,879 × 10.7k at the touch
24h range
2¢ – 2¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%−0

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
24h low 2¢24h high 2¢
Recent buying89% YES · 11% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 20, 7:03 AMSep 21, 5:13 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask30.0k3¢
  • ask110.1k3¢
  • ask24.3k2¢
  • ask23.9k2¢
  • ask32.0k2¢
  • ask482¢
  • ask17.6k2¢
  • ask10.7k2¢
spread0¢mid 2¢
  • bid5,8792¢
  • bid52.7k2¢
  • bid51.2k2¢
  • bid26.7k2¢
  • bid1111¢
  • bid5821¢
  • bid2,1661¢
  • bid26.8k1¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If James Talarico wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22, 2025 · 2:40 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-JTAL
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 89% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
22s ago2¢9.24bought no
22s ago2¢89bought no
14m ago2¢98bought yes
3h ago2¢233bought no
4h ago2¢9.24bought yes
4h ago2¢21bought no
4h ago2¢6.96bought no
4h ago2¢18bought no
4h ago2¢32bought no
6h ago2¢483bought yes
6h ago2¢2,462bought yes
7h ago2¢48bought yes
7h ago2¢492bought yes
10h ago2¢46bought no
11h ago2¢77bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.