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Democratic Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?

YES means Mark Kelly

24h volume
8,490
7.79M lifetime
Open interest
4.42M
+50.3k over 7d
Spread
0¢
1,270 × 1,804 at the touch
24h range
4¢ – 4¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%−0

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 96¢

YES bid / ask
4¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 96¢
24h low 4¢24h high 4¢
Recent buying28% YES · 72% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,7005¢
  • ask30.0k5¢
  • ask245¢
  • ask6,3955¢
  • ask48.7k5¢
  • ask47.4k4¢
  • ask4,8864¢
  • ask1,8044¢
spread0¢mid 4¢
  • bid1,2704¢
  • bid3,1634¢
  • bid11.5k4¢
  • bid21.9k4¢
  • bid224¢
  • bid1003¢
  • bid213¢
  • bid5,3003¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Mark Kelly wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 1, 2025 · 10:30 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMD-28-MK
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 28% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
30m ago4¢10bought no
3h ago4¢0.77bought no
3h ago4¢1.26bought no
3h ago4¢1.31bought no
3h ago4¢35bought no
5h ago4¢0.21bought yes
5h ago4¢0.15bought yes
5h ago4¢0.77bought yes
5h ago4¢1.27bought yes
5h ago4¢109bought yes
5h ago4¢206bought yes
5h ago4¢0.77bought yes
5h ago4¢0.75bought no
5h ago4¢22bought no
5h ago4¢1bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.