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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Brian Kemp be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Brian Kemp

24h volume
68.1k
1.71M lifetime
Open interest
1.33M
+315.6k over 90d
Spread
0¢
5,355 × 5.01 at the touch
24h range
0¢ – 1¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%+0

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
24h low 0¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying80% YES · 20% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volJun 24Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask30.0k2¢
  • ask1712¢
  • ask1042¢
  • ask4661¢
  • ask191¢
  • ask224.9k1¢
  • ask1721¢
  • ask5.011¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid5,3551¢
  • bid24.0k0¢
  • bid14.2k0¢
  • bid300.0k0¢
  • bid5.02M0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Brian Kemp wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-BK
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 80% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago1¢3,196bought yes
3h ago1¢397bought yes
3h ago1¢10bought yes
3h ago1¢14bought yes
3h ago1¢3,816bought yes
3h ago1¢600bought yes
3h ago1¢1,500bought yes
3h ago1¢1,000bought yes
3h ago1¢10bought yes
3h ago1¢42.1kbought yes
16h ago0¢92bought no
16h ago1¢3,732bought no
16h ago0¢956bought no
16h ago1¢5,000bought no
16h ago1¢100bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.