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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Donald J. Trump

24h volume
562
4.42M lifetime
Open interest
2.73M
Spread
0¢
337 × 758 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%−0

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
Recent buying47% YES · 53% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask30.7k3¢
  • ask30.0k3¢
  • ask64.9k3¢
  • ask80.5k3¢
  • ask2,2393¢
  • ask1313¢
  • ask1,0032¢
  • ask7582¢
spread0¢mid 2¢
  • bid3372¢
  • bid2.652¢
  • bid2932¢
  • bid2,2192¢
  • bid3,7092¢
  • bid9662¢
  • bid1,8902¢
  • bid9.381¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald J. Trump wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJT
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 47% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
4h ago2¢28bought no
7h ago2¢23bought yes
7h ago3¢390bought yes
11h ago2¢2.13bought no
11h ago2¢23bought no
11h ago3¢1.08bought yes
11h ago3¢2.03bought yes
11h ago3¢12bought yes
11h ago3¢5.63bought yes
11h ago2¢2.74bought yes
11h ago2¢0.07bought yes
11h ago3¢1.19bought yes
11h ago2¢7.93bought yes
11h ago2¢2.74bought yes
11h ago2¢0.08bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.