Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Donald J. Trump Jr.

24h volume
12.5k
2.90M lifetime
Open interest
2.01M
+27.6k over 7d
Spread
5,178 × 4,995 at the touch
24h range
3¢ – 4¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%+0

A YES contract costs and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
/
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 97¢
24h low 24h high
Recent buying97% YES · 3% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask379
  • ask10.5k
  • ask53.3k
  • ask3,929
  • ask383
  • ask884
  • ask457
  • ask4,995
spreadmid
  • bid5,178
  • bid25.0k
  • bid5,096
  • bid2,000
  • bid88
  • bid2,738
  • bid88
  • bid1
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Donald J. Trump Jr. wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 97% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3h ago13bought yes
11h ago125bought no
15h ago11.1kbought yes
15h ago10bought yes
15h ago1bought yes
15h ago999bought yes
15h ago1bought yes
17h ago1bought no
23h ago270bought yes
1d ago491bought yes
2d ago25bought no
3d ago1bought yes
3d ago1bought yes
3d ago1.03bought no
3d ago91bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.