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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means J.D. Vance

24h volume
6,557
4.32M lifetime
Open interest
1.83M
+145.9k over 30d
Spread
1¢
60.2k × 116.2k at the touch
24h range
45¢ – 46¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
46%+1

A YES contract costs 46¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
54%

costs 55¢

YES bid / ask
45¢ / 46¢
NO bid / ask
54¢ / 55¢
24h low 45¢24h high 46¢
Recent buying58% YES · 42% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
35¢40¢45¢50¢55¢volAug 22Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask9054¢
  • ask32353¢
  • ask2251¢
  • ask50550¢
  • ask44449¢
  • ask27848¢
  • ask73.0k47¢
  • ask116.2k46¢
spread1¢mid 45¢
  • bid60.2k45¢
  • bid16.9k44¢
  • bid29.5k43¢
  • bid1,79042¢
  • bid5,50041¢
  • bid20.8k40¢
  • bid71739¢
  • bid30038¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 98¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 58% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
3m ago46¢52bought yes
7m ago46¢21bought yes
21m ago45¢213bought no
40m ago46¢10bought yes
1h ago45¢1bought no
1h ago46¢42bought yes
1h ago46¢21bought yes
2h ago46¢31bought yes
2h ago45¢1bought no
3h ago46¢2.09bought yes
3h ago45¢10bought no
3h ago46¢2.09bought yes
3h ago45¢1bought no
3h ago45¢2.09bought no
4h ago45¢6.86bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.