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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Ted Cruz be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Ted Cruz

24h volume
1,066
1.99M lifetime
Open interest
1.26M
Spread
0¢
186.0k × 67.4k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
2%

A YES contract costs 2¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
98%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
2¢ / 2¢
NO bid / ask
98¢ / 98¢
Recent buying66% YES · 34% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask15.0k3¢
  • ask15.0k2¢
  • ask34.6k2¢
  • ask50.1k2¢
  • ask8782¢
  • ask48.0k2¢
  • ask76.0k2¢
  • ask67.4k2¢
spread0¢mid 2¢
  • bid186.0k2¢
  • bid63.5k2¢
  • bid55.6k2¢
  • bid10.1k1¢
  • bid2,0151¢
  • bid58.2k1¢
  • bid40.3k1¢
  • bid2,6001¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Ted Cruz wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 6, 2024 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-TC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 66% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2h ago2¢19bought no
11h ago2¢2bought yes
11h ago2¢25bought yes
18h ago2¢500bought yes
18h ago2¢66bought yes
18h ago2¢453bought yes
1d ago2¢130bought no
2d ago2¢933bought yes
2d ago2¢563bought yes
2d ago2¢52bought yes
2d ago2¢700bought no
2d ago2¢5,198bought yes
3d ago2¢26bought no
3d ago2¢43bought yes
3d ago2¢5bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.