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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Tucker Carlson

24h volume
1,937
4.47M lifetime
Open interest
2.70M
Spread
0¢
23.0k × 1,527 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
3%

A YES contract costs 3¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
97%

costs 98¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 3¢
NO bid / ask
97¢ / 98¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask973¢
  • ask27.3k3¢
  • ask1,4363¢
  • ask233¢
  • ask1,7883¢
  • ask2,4463¢
  • ask10.0k3¢
  • ask1,5273¢
spread0¢mid 3¢
  • bid23.0k3¢
  • bid7472¢
  • bid10.1k2¢
  • bid4,0352¢
  • bid4,0592¢
  • bid8,6952¢
  • bid4,9112¢
  • bid3,0002¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Oct 1, 2025 · 2:00 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
38m ago3¢120bought yes
50m ago3¢72bought yes
3h ago3¢135bought no
3h ago3¢0.56bought no
5h ago3¢1,305bought no
11h ago3¢304bought no
1d ago3¢5.35bought no
2d ago3¢0.2bought yes
2d ago3¢3.42bought yes
2d ago3¢1,012bought yes
2d ago3¢5.35bought yes
2d ago3¢5.35bought yes
2d ago3¢54bought no
2d ago3¢48bought no
3d ago3¢1,000bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.