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Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Thomas Massie be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Thomas Massie

24h volume
1,887
3.31M lifetime
Open interest
1.75M
+9,980 over 7d
Spread
0¢
2,318 × 48.4k at the touch
24h range
1¢ – 1¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%−0

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 99¢

YES bid / ask
1¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 99¢
24h low 1¢24h high 1¢
Recent buying93% YES · 7% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
0¢5¢10¢volSep 14Sep 21

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask5,0892¢
  • ask1,3072¢
  • ask1,0712¢
  • ask32.1k2¢
  • ask38.3k2¢
  • ask99.3k1¢
  • ask6,5531¢
  • ask48.4k1¢
spread0¢mid 1¢
  • bid2,3181¢
  • bid2,9221¢
  • bid3,3071¢
  • bid18.0k1¢
  • bid13.2k1¢
  • bid4,2691¢
  • bid13.4k1¢
  • bid15.3k0¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Thomas Massie wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Jul 22, 2025 · 4:54 AM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-TMAS
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 93% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
53m ago1¢19bought yes
6h ago1¢1,559bought yes
12h ago1¢30bought yes
12h ago1¢72bought no
13h ago1¢207bought yes
1d ago1¢60bought yes
1d ago1¢72bought yes
1d ago1¢20bought no
1d ago1¢62bought no
2d ago1¢10bought yes
2d ago1¢104bought no
2d ago1¢454bought yes
2d ago1¢36bought no
2d ago1¢3.01bought no
2d ago1¢3.19bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.