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U.S. withdrawing from international organizations·closes in 28mo

Will the U.S. withdraw from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029?

YES means World Trade Organization

24h volume
0
5,227 lifetime
Open interest
2,168
+0 over 24h
Spread
5¢
10 × 36 at the touch
24h range
–
41 recent trades
Chance of YES
29%

A YES contract costs 34¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
71%

costs 71¢

YES bid / ask
29¢ / 34¢
NO bid / ask
66¢ / 71¢
Recent buying63% YES · 37% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 20, 1:31 PMSep 21, 4:20 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask29074¢
  • ask19172¢
  • ask1,20170¢
  • ask68368¢
  • ask4963¢
  • ask156¢
  • ask30035¢
  • ask3634¢
spread5¢mid 31¢
  • bid1029¢
  • bid26628¢
  • bid346¢
  • bid36¢
  • bid474¢
  • bid5294¢
  • bid1,0004¢
  • bid4,5003¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If the United States completely withdraws from World Trade Organization before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Feb 18, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 20, 2029 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXWITHDRAW-29-WTO
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 41 trades, 63% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
2d ago29¢2bought no
6d ago29¢4.14bought no
10d ago35¢4.53bought yes
10d ago34¢5bought yes
10d ago34¢7.19bought yes
11d ago29¢5bought no
11d ago29¢23bought no
14d ago29¢1.38bought no
19d ago32¢7.19bought no
21d ago36¢53bought yes
22d ago34¢1bought yes
22d ago33¢100bought yes
22d ago35¢41bought yes
27d ago29¢5bought no
29d ago29¢9.23bought no

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.