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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?

YES means Henry Cavill

24h volume
187
107.4k lifetime
Open interest
41.5k
Spread
1¢
49 × 1,583 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
4%

A YES contract costs 4¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
96%

costs 97¢

YES bid / ask
3¢ / 4¢
NO bid / ask
96¢ / 97¢
Recent buying90% YES · 10% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask611¢
  • ask20310¢
  • ask1,0919¢
  • ask68¢
  • ask297¢
  • ask4556¢
  • ask145¢
  • ask1,5834¢
spread1¢mid 4¢
  • bid493¢
  • bid1272¢
  • bid2421¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Henry Cavill is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 26, 2025 · 3:00 PM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXBOND-30-HC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 90% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
39m ago4¢70bought yes
3h ago4¢117bought yes
4d ago4¢117bought yes
4d ago4¢586bought yes
4d ago4¢117bought yes
5d ago3¢19bought no
5d ago4¢208bought yes
5d ago4¢378bought yes
6d ago3¢1bought no
6d ago4¢117bought yes
6d ago4¢351bought yes
6d ago4¢23bought yes
6d ago4¢23bought yes
6d ago4¢14bought yes
6d ago4¢1,000bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.