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Next Bond actor·closes in 40mo

Will Tom Holland be the next James Bond?

YES means Tom Holland

24h volume
0
81.8k lifetime
Open interest
30.0k
Spread
1¢
0 × 611 at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
1%

A YES contract costs 1¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
99%

costs 100¢

YES bid / ask
0¢ / 1¢
NO bid / ask
99¢ / 100¢
Recent buying50% YES · 50% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask2,02421¢
  • ask620¢
  • ask617¢
  • ask16.7k11¢
  • ask13610¢
  • ask5003¢
  • ask2,0002¢
  • ask6111¢
spread–mid –
    Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

    How this market resolves

    Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

    If Tom Holland is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

    This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.

    Settlement sources
    opened
    Jun 27, 2025 · 7:21 PM UTC
    closes
    Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
    settles by
    Jan 1, 2030 · 3:00 PM UTC
    ticker
    KXBOND-30-TOMH
    Trade it on kalshi.com

    Other outcomes in this event

    Outcomes in this event settle independently.

    Recent trades

    Over the last 50 trades, 50% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

    WhenYESContractsSide
    4d ago1¢94bought yes
    4d ago1¢94bought yes
    5d ago1¢94bought yes
    9d ago1¢169bought yes
    12d ago1¢0.93bought yes
    13d ago1¢5bought yes
    13d ago1¢20bought no
    19d ago2¢189bought yes
    19d ago2¢860bought yes
    19d ago2¢451bought yes
    20d ago1¢421bought no
    20d ago1¢593bought no
    20d ago2¢47bought yes
    20d ago2¢94bought yes
    21d ago1¢574bought no

    Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.