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Crypto being positive·closes in 3mo

Which of these cryptocurrencies will have a positive return in 2026?

YES means Bitcoin (BTC)

24h volume
507
153.4k lifetime
Open interest
32.8k
+375 over 24h
Spread
3¢
200 × 100 at the touch
24h range
27¢ – 36¢
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
27%−1

A YES contract costs 28¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
73%

costs 75¢

YES bid / ask
25¢ / 28¢
NO bid / ask
72¢ / 75¢
24h low 27¢24h high 36¢
Recent buying29% YES · 71% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
20¢25¢30¢35¢40¢volSep 20, 2:19 AMSep 21, 12:41 AM

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask6735¢
  • ask2434¢
  • ask20033¢
  • ask1532¢
  • ask10031¢
  • ask10030¢
  • ask15029¢
  • ask10028¢
spread3¢mid 27¢
  • bid20025¢
  • bid10024¢
  • bid3422¢
  • bid12721¢
  • bid10520¢
  • bid29019¢
  • bid2,00018¢
  • bid15211¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Bitcoin has a positive return in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Return will be calculated as: (last Price in <period>) minus (first Price in <period>), divided by (first Price in <period>). Price will be calculated by taking a simple average of the real-time CF Benchmarks index price in USD for <cryptocurrency> for the 60 seconds in a given minute, ignoring the top and bottom 20% of values.

Settlement sources
opened
Jan 6 · 7:00 AM UTC
closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Dec 31 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXCRYPTORETURNY-26-BTC
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Outcomes in this event settle independently.

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 29% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
30m ago27¢100bought yes
48m ago31¢22bought no
48m ago29¢165bought no
48m ago30¢69bought no
48m ago30¢22bought no
48m ago31¢0.09bought no
48m ago32¢4.06bought no
49m ago30¢10bought no
49m ago30¢28bought no
5h ago32¢0.69bought no
6h ago35¢33bought no
6h ago35¢0.11bought no
8h ago36¢2.95bought yes
9h ago33¢0.5bought yes
9h ago34¢14bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.