galdor.xyz
Admin
Republican Primary winner·closes in 26mo

Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?

YES means Marco Rubio

Vance leads at 45¢; Rubio is a clear second, DeSantis is 4¢, and a Trump family member is a rounding error. Rubio's own 'announces by Oct 2027' contract is a coin flip.
Our read · Sep 20, 2026 · 3 PM ET
24h volume
5,889
5.48M lifetime
Open interest
2.49M
Spread
1¢
9,655 × 72.6k at the touch
24h range
–
50 recent trades
Chance of YES
21%+1

A YES contract costs 21¢ and pays $1 if it happens.

NO
79%

costs 80¢

YES bid / ask
20¢ / 21¢
NO bid / ask
79¢ / 80¢
Recent buying18% YES · 82% NO
What Galdor thinks

An independent read of this market

1Reads the rules literallySettlement source, close time, and the edge cases that flip an outcome.
2Checks the tape and the webOrder book, flow, price history, then targeted searches with sources.
3Gives a straight answerA probability with a band, and one of four calls: YES, NO, wait, or stay out.

Generated by an AI analyst from live exchange data and public web sources. Research and analytics, not investment advice. Markets can move after this was written.

Price history

YES price per candle with the bid/ask band, volume underneath. Times in UTC.

24h7d30d90d
Not enough history to chart.

Order book

Resting orders, both sides shown as YES prices. Bars are size.

Yes ask (no bid)SizeYes
  • ask3,02529¢
  • ask49.7k27¢
  • ask30.3k26¢
  • ask4,45625¢
  • ask31.6k24¢
  • ask51.9k23¢
  • ask33.3k22¢
  • ask72.6k21¢
spread1¢mid 21¢
  • bid9,65520¢
  • bid43.4k19¢
  • bid12318¢
  • bid83917¢
  • bid25.6k16¢
  • bid20.6k15¢
  • bid3,03714¢
  • bid3213¢
Yes bid (no ask)SizeYes

How this market resolves

Verbatim from Kalshi. Read this before the price.

If Marco Rubio wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources
opened
Nov 12, 2024 · 1:30 PM UTC
closes
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC · may close early
settles by
Nov 7, 2028 · 3:00 PM UTC
ticker
KXPRESNOMR-28-MR
Trade it on kalshi.com

Other outcomes in this event

Mutually exclusive: YES prices should add to about $1.00 (they add to 97¢).

Recent trades

Over the last 50 trades, 18% of contracts were bought on the YES side.

WhenYESContractsSide
1h ago21¢90bought yes
2h ago20¢14bought no
2h ago20¢7bought no
2h ago21¢90bought yes
2h ago20¢7bought no
3h ago21¢23bought yes
3h ago21¢68bought yes
4h ago20¢33bought no
4h ago20¢745bought no
5h ago20¢47bought no
6h ago21¢45bought yes
6h ago21¢23bought yes
7h ago21¢4.3bought yes
7h ago21¢4.51bought yes
8h ago21¢43bought yes

Prices are YES cost in cents and approximate the market’s implied probability. Data is read live from the Kalshi Trade API on every page load. galdor.xyz places no orders and holds no positions. Research and analytics, not investment advice.